Holdin' the bag in Ladera

This Ladera Ranch property is the result of what happens when you're stuck when the real estate musical chairs ends. Oops...

24 Winslow St, 92694
Asking price: $820,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $216
Purchase price: $1,300,000
Purchase date: 6/24/04
Size: 5 beds, 4.5 baths, 3,800 sq ft (built in 2000)
MLS: S550961 (268 days on Redfin)
HOA dues: $160
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Cape Cod
Stories: 2
Lot size: 7,034 Sq. Ft.
From listing: Award winning Wyeth plan 3. Features 5 bedrooms plus library and a bonus room/loft! Well appointed home with hardwood floors, crown molding, designer paint/carpet, granite kitchen, built-in entertainment center, plantation shutters and an outdoor fireplace with bbq. Some other highlights of the home are a separate 3rd car garage, front and rear staircases, tech center and a split level library/office. Located on a cul de sac street minutes away from shopping centers and community amenities.

As you may have noticed by the days on Redfin count, this is not a new listing by any means. In fact, it's one of those that's been around the block and gone through a number of different incarnations.

The first in October 2008 involved an asking price identical to the 2004 bubble price of $1.3 million. Later on, in January of this year, it went down to $800,000. Now, it's back up to $820,000.

The previous sales history is also interesting - $560,000 in 2000; $750,000 in 2002 and then $1.3 million in 2004. That's an increase of 132% in four years. Now, if the property can be sold for the current asking price, it would mean a decline of 37% over five years.

Let the bidding begin in Lake Forest

Three important letters: REO. What are you waiting for....put your bid in for this Lake Forest property before its price hits the stratosphere and you're locked out forever! Or exercise some logic and restraint, and move on...

24832 Glenwood Dr, 92630
Asking price: $499,900
Asking price/ sq ft: $201
Bank purchase price: $513,589
Purchase date: 5/21/09
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,492 sq ft (built in 1976)
MLS: S579869 (8 days on Redfin)
HOA dues: $140
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Traditional
Stories: 2
Lot size: 6,975 Sq. Ft.
From listing: Large tri-level home surrounded by eucalyptus trees fully fenced..Wood flooring throughtout..Upgraded baths and kitchen..Very impressive two story livingroom with center fireplace..Rear wrap around deck off the open family room..Main floor bedroom with full bath..You will not be disappointed..

No need to even take a look at the pictures...just send your deposit money in a plain white envelope. Pay no attention to the awful yellow and green interior paint job that is going to need to be redone prior to regular habitation when this property sells.

Speaking of sales, this house last sold for $610,000 in 2004, which makes the current asking price 18% below the sales price more than five years ago. Think about that...half a decade, seriously negative appreciation. And, it's likely to be many years before the house is worth that much again.

We also know that the 2003 sales price was $461,000...so this means the bank's first asking price is $38,900 above the September 2003 sales price. Would you be willing to outbid some others to buy this property and feel confident you got a great deal for half a mil? We'll pass and see what's out there come fall...or winter...or spring 2010...or...

'03 luxury rollback in Mission?

We hope everyone had a great weekend. We returned to So Cal after a few days in a bit cooler climate. It's always great to get out for a bit and explore the rest of our country. Now, here's a former million-dollar property in Mission that is a good example of our real estate market's rise and fall.

23381 Rockrose, 92692
Asking price: $879,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $231
Purchase price: $1,015,000
Purchase date: 2/22/07
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 3,800 sq ft (built in 1999)
MLS: S572579 (69 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 6/17/09 -- $915,000 to $879,000
Zillow Zestimate: $786,000
HOA dues: $193
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Normandy
Stories: 2
Lot size: 6,408 Sq. Ft.
From listing: Spacious 4 bedroom/3 bath home with loft, 3rd story Bonus/Game room and a beautiful city lights and hills view from the pool sized back yard w/BBQ built in and the master bedroom. Large Family room has built in media wall unit, surround sound and 50' plasma t.v. Cozy firelpaces, high ceilings with magnificient crown molding, gourmet kitchen with granite counters, center island w/breakfast bar and eat in kitchen area, formal dining room, formal living room and upstairs laundry room. This house truly has it all. Warm and inviting with great layout perfect for entertaining.

2002 sales price: $605,000; 2007 sales price: more than $1 million. Does this look like the kitchen of a million-dollar property? We don't think so.

This property was competing with 23361 Cobblefield - it's a similar-sized property priced at $875,000 that is now accepting backup offers. That would mean, then, that our subject property may be priced right to attract a buyer.

However, there are two issues: 1) the other property has nicer touches - including a more upgraded kitchen. It's also 2) not a short sale, at least from the description. The Redfin records say this other property last sold for $860,000 in 2003, so that means the current owners will likely be saddled with a loss, once sales costs and money on upgrades are factored in. This potential sale suggests these types of properties in Mission have now essentially rolled back to 2003 pricing.

If our subject property sells for the full asking price, and a sale is able to be completed, it would mean a loss of $136,000 before sales costs.

Happy 4th of July!

Happy 4th of July weekend! We're headed out of town early, and will see everyone next week. Hope your Independence Day is happy and safe!

Would you?

"Dana Point Harbor Sunset." Photo: jnocca93

As we pointed out in our previous home stats post, sales are generally a bit up year-over-year in South OC, and prices are still continuing to fall. Is it time to jump into the market if you're considering buying? Of course, it depends on what type of home you want to own.

If you're like the majority of homebuyers right now (we'll exclude investors), your budget is probably $600,000-$650,000 or less (or much less), and you'd like something beyond an apartment-like condo with enough space to stay put in for at least a number of years. You've got a real job so you're not going to waste time chasing short sales, and properties that are in escrow are also out of bounds for obvious reasons - we don't want to go around making backup offers.

What does the for sale landscape look like right now during the busy time of 2009? Not very welcoming. There are few properties for sale, and the ones that are for sale at reasonable prices (by today's standards) are attracting buyers. There are a below average amount of sales happening, partially becuase there are fewer properties for sale in total. Even fewer are not short sales that can actually go through. Foreclosures are "hot."

Let's take a quick tour around South OC to look at what our theoretical buyer would see. Remember, they're ready to pull the trigger right now on a house, we'll assume they can afford up to $650,000 (because they earn $162,500 and are being conservative with their financing), and they need at least 3 bedrooms and 2 baths.

First, let's start in San Clemente. For many who work in the county's job centers, it's too far south. Still, a great place to live if you can stomach the 5 freeway.

In this screen shot, there are about 20 listings that meet our criteria. Now up to Dana Point and San Juan...
There are lots of properties for sale in San Juan - particularly in the not-so-great areas, and many of those are short sales or foreclosures. Besides some WTF pricing, the majority of properties here have been on the market for some time. Maybe that pricing is crazy too, and we just didn't look closely enough...
We've heard it before that Aliso Viejo is a "strong" mini housing market. The properties for sale right now are not appealing to us - at least based on the selection available and their relative value based on asking prices. If you'd like a comparison, here's a similar view with short sales and escrow properties back in. As you can see...a lot more properties out there, just not within reach of our reasonable made-up buyer.