Tuesday, July 01, 2008

The beating continues in San Juan

Small condos in San Juan are low-hanging fruit in the world of real estate blogging post-bubble, but some of these properties have fallen so far so fast that it's hard not to take a look in every now and then to see what's happening.

Here's an example of one that's selling for $156 per square foot. It's also more than 50% off the bubble-inflated price of just three years ago.

26462 Calle San Francisco #53e, 92675
Asking price: $178,900
Asking price/ sq ft: $156
Income requirement: $44,725
FB purchase price: $406,500
Purchase date: 1/26/05
Size: 2 beds, 2 baths, 1,145 sq ft (built in 1971)
MLS: S538367 (2 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $401,500
2007 property tax: $4,346
HOA dues: $230
Type: Condominium
Stories: 1 Level
From listing: 3 bedrooms with 2 baths and 2 car garage on a corner lot.

This property sold for $100,000 in 1989 - right before the 90s decline - using FHA financing. Redfin/Zillow show us this place sold for $406,500 in 2005.

Judging by properties on the MLS for rent, we would estimate you probably could be able to rent it out for around $1,350-$1,400 per month - assuming you put in a little money and did the necessary cosmetic fixes.

If we were to look at this property from an owner-occupant point of view and wanted to hit a GRM of 160, then we would value this property at about $216,000, if we assume rental value of $1,350 per month. Rental parity: Check.

But, it is unlikely an owner-occupant would want to occupy this type of space long term, so we would think this property could be appealing to a cashflow investor, if the price were right. As the property is priced now, the GRM is around 133. Not bad, but perhaps not quite low enough.

Take a closer look at the asking price of $178,900. It's $227,600 or 56% below the peak "value" in 2005. If the property sells for the current asking price, it also would mean the condo would have increased in value by a reasonable 3.1% every year since 1989.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

For a cashflow investor, I feel one really needs to subtract the monthly HOA from the rent to use the GRM120.

so $1350 - $260 = $1100, x120 = $132k

Still has a way to go before investors, at least smart ones, jump in!


(freedomCM)

Beeatch said...

looks like the Zillow estimate is right on the mark.