Market chaser redux in Mission Viejo

We're out for the day and won't be able to do a complete blog post today, but we wanted to show you another example of a market-chasing listing. This one is in Mission Viejo, and it has been on the market for 79 days:

26482 Via Lara, 92691
Current asking price: $599,693
Description: 4 Bedroom Excellence / Value in Mission Viejo! Owners are motivated and it's priced to sell NOW! Brand NEW carpet 6/13/08. Chef's dream kitchen - Custom made cherry cabinets with granite countertops and all JennAir stainless steel appliances. Perfect family home with great floor plan and ALL bedrooms upstairs. True PRIDE of ownership! Upgrades galore. Huge hardscaped backyard with custom firepit, built in BBQ and tropical landscape. Neat, well maintained front yard. Formal dining & living room and upgraded family room. All bedrooms have custom closet organizers. Fresh paint, new tile, base and crown molding and ceiling fans. This home has been maintained by Mr. and Mrs. Clean! Great neighborhood! Near school, park & lake. Member of Lake Mission Viejo. NO HOA and NO MELLO ROOS. Jump on this opportunity before it's too late!

Price Reduced: 04/30/08 -- $599,999 to $599,998
Price Reduced: 05/02/08 -- $599,998 to $599,997
Price Reduced: 05/18/08 -- $599,995 to $599,899
Price Reduced: 05/24/08 -- $599,899 to $599,777
Price Reduced: 06/01/08 -- $599,777 to $599,697
Price Reduced: 06/13/08 -- $599,697 to $599,696
Price Reduced: 06/16/08 -- $599,696 to $599,695
Price Reduced: 07/07/08 -- $599,695 to $599,693

That's eight price reductions in a little more than two months for a total of $306 off the original asking price of $599,999. Or, if you prefer, an average price cut of $38.25 each time.

We also see they "celebrated" the installation of the new carpet on June 13 by lowering the price by a whole $1.

Redfin shows the previous sales price was $287,500 in 2000, so the owners should come out plenty ahead once they sell, assuming they haven't squandered their equity. Mr. and Mrs. Clean - as the listing calls you- how long will you keep chasing the market down?

Good deal? Be the judge

Today we're looking at a Mission Viejo investment property for sale. We say investment because the description explains it's already being rented until 2009. They even were kind enough to tell us how much the rent is:

INVESTORS LOVERS,PROPERTY RENTED FOR $2100 PER MONTH TO VERY NICE TENANT TILL FRIST MONTH OF THE NEXT YEAR.PRICE JUST REDUCED TO SELL FAST,UNBELIEVABLE SADDLEBACK VALLEY VIEW FROM ENTIRE BACK OF HOME AND WRAP-AROUND THE DECK,LOCATED ON A QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD,CLOSE TO LAKE MISSION VIEJO,SHOPPING,PARKS,SCHOOLS AND RESTAURANTS,THIS END UNIT,3 BD,2.5 BA,TOWNHOME FEATURES OPEN FLOOR PLAN,ROMANTIC FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM,SURROUND SOUND SYSTEM,WASHER/DRYER INCL,CENTRAL AIR,OWNERSHIP INCLUDS LAKE TEMBERSHIP,SECURITY SYSTEM AND SUPER LOW TAX BASE AND MUCH MORE.

Typos are the order of the day here, unless since we last checked "first" became "frist," "includes" became "includs," and "membership" devolved to "tembership." We're not going to touch "investors lovers."

There is no photo with the listing, so we went with the Google street view.

Would you bite on this as an investment? Even if you wanted it to own it and live here, you couldn't for a bit because you would have to honor the terms of the lease. Our goal is for an owner-occupant to pay about 160 times the market monthly rent to buy a property, which would theoretically allow it to cost about the same each month to own as it would to rent.

We know market rent for this unit is $2,100. That means it should be worth about $336,000 to someone who would want to buy and then live in this condo, which is $114,000 below the asking price. Uh oh. There's also the question of whether or not someone would even want to buy a property like this to live in, considering it's been a rental and probably isn't a long-term solution.

Cashflow investors typically would want a GRM of around 100-120 to ensure their investment will be profitable. So, they would probably be interested in the property if it were priced in the neighborhood of $210,000-$252,000. Not even close. Oh, and don't forget about the extremely high HOA dues ($312 per month and $19 every quarter).

Notice these are only rough estimates, but since the numbers are so off that it seems unlikely anyone could rent this out and be cashflow positive (barring an excessive downpayment or an exotic loan that doesn't really exist anymore) the point is made that this appears to be a very poor investment opportunity.

The only other approach we could think of is someone willing to take a loss each month as a trade-off for anticipated appreciation. That is a deadly game, particularly in a down market.

Perhaps we'll wait for the next "deal" to come along...

Lender-approved sale: New trend?

We've speculated before about whether lenders are actually approving some of the more drastic short sale properties offered on the MLS in South Orange County, because that would mean writing off hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses - per home, in some instances.

The positives: The homedebtor gets rid of the burden of owning the house and avoids foreclosure, the buyer gets a suitable property at a fair price and the bank takes the hit on the sale but does not have to deal with the property in foreclosure.

If banks are willing to let more short sale transactions go through at market prices, we could see escalating price declines and find a bottom sooner than if the banks did not allow short sales and eventually had to sell them months after completing foreclosure proceedings.

Here's some proof some lenders are in fact allowing some extreme short sales to go through - that is, if a willing buyer can be found to pay the approved price. This one is in Mission Viejo.

21145 Foxtail, 92692
Asking price: $555,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $326
Income requirement: $138,750
Purchase price: $740,000
Purchase date: 2/24/06
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,700 sq ft (built in 1987)
MLS: S519260 (151 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 1/26/08 -- $650,000 to $620,000
Price Increased: 1/28/08 -- $620,000 to $650,000
Price Reduced: 5/08/08 -- $650,000 to $585,000
Price Reduced: 5/15/08 -- $585,000 to $580,000
Price Reduced: 6/20/08 -- $580,000 to $555,000
Zillow Zestimate: $571,000
2007 property tax: $8,621.88
HOA dues: $68 + $18
Type: Single Family Residence
Stories: 2 Levels
Lot size: 5,200 sq ft
From listing: LENDER APPROVED!! JUST GOT APPROVAL LETTER YESTERDAY!! A FULL PRICE OFFER WILL BE ACCEPTED AND MOVE IMMEDIATLY INTO ESCROW. Amazing two story located on cul-de-sac street. All the upgrades including travertine flooring, granite countertops, ceiling fans, gourmet kitchen and nook! Master bath has duel vanity, seperate stand up shower and tub, beautiful tile throughout. 2 fireplaces!!! Large backyard with huge patio. LENDER APPROVED SHORT SALE!!! HURRY WON'T LAST LONG!!


View Larger Map

This property has been chasing down the market since January, but now its price is lender approved, so don't be surprised if it "WON'T LAST LONG!!"

The owner used 100% financing to buy this property in 2006. First Franklin, which provided the funding, has approved a short sale at $555,000 - a stunning 25% below the previous sales price. Think about that: the lender has acknowledged the property has lost a quarter of its value in less than a year and a half.

We'll assume the real estate agent(s) will take their 6% off the sale of this price. So, if a buyer can be found the current owner will lose no money of their own in the deal since they didn't put any money down. The lender will be out $218,300. The second loan of $148,000 will be completely wiped out, and the first loan of $592,000 also will be affected.

Not a bad deal for the homedebtor; bad situation for the bank. At least it's one fewer foreclosure the courts will have to deal with later.

Oh, and potential buyers might want to make sure this property gets up to date with its 2007 property taxes, since they haven't been paid yet.

Jump on in...water's fine!

Today's REO property in Mission Viejo provides anecdotal evidence that loans made last year are already beginning to blow up and add to the foreclosure inventory in South Orange County.

You'll also love the backyard...

25421 Adriana St, 92691
Asking price: $500,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $194
Income requirement: $125,000
FB purchase price: $865,000
FB purchase date: 5/29/08
Size: 5 beds, 3 baths, 2,72 sq ft (built in 1967)
MLS: P642596 (2 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $714,500
2007 property tax: $6,446
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary
Stories: 2 Levels
Lot size: 7,540 sq ft
From listing: 4 bedroom 3 bath home. Large backyard with pool. Lots of upgrades although the property does need some upgrades. 2 car attached garage. Living room with fireplace. PLEASE NO FHA offers. See agent remarks


View Larger Map

So the property is upgraded but needs more upgrades. Is that code for "it was nicer before but now it's trashed"?

The previous owner paid $865,000 in April 2007 using 100% financing. The property was already in default by December, and it went back to the bank at auction in May.

Who wouldn't want to take a dip in the backyard pool? Gross.
Assuming the bank finds a buyer willing to take the property for the asking price, it would mean a depreciation of $365,000 or 42% in a little more than one year as the property devolved into a vacant fixer-upper! Never mind the fact that the kitchen had been recently remodeled...

No arguing the property is in a sad state right now. It's even more disheartening when you consider what it looked like right before its previous sale last April, when it was occupied by a family who took care of its home.

These photos are from the 2007 MLS listing....

And here's what we see now on the current listing...

Interestingly, the previous owners who sold in 2007 listed the home at $750,876 but were able to sell for $114,124 more than their asking price.

Demolition not quite done in Mission

Here's a single family REO that recently came on to the market in Mission Viejo. Looks alright from the outside. The basic facts:

26581 Via Cuervo, 92691
Asking price: $404,900
Bank purchase price: $446,250
Bank purchase date: 3/7/08
Peak purchase price: $650,000
Peak purchase date: 1/30/06
Size: 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,460 sq ft (built in 1973)
MLS: S533153 (4 days on Redfin)
Description: Fixer to complete as you like. Remodel in process and not completed. 3 upstairs bedrooms nearly complete with new windows, carpet, and new slider in master. No kitchen or upstairs bath (down to the studs). Downstairs bath is functional but needs to be replaced. No flooring downstairs. Nice lot with views from the backyard.

Hmm...no kitchen and missing the upstairs bathroom. No flooring downstairs. And, the second bathroom down there is "functional but needs to be replaced." As in, you probably don't want to go in there. So there's no place to make food since the kitchen has been gutted, and no place to do your business, either.

How bad can it be? Let's take a tour and start with the living room...

This appears to have been the kitchen, but we're not sure...

Guess this is the bathroom that was dismantled and left unfinished:
The yard could also use a little sprucing, though that's no surprise considering this is a foreclosure...

It will take the right kind of person to take on a project of this magnitude, so it will be interesting to watch and see how this property fares. Notice the peak price was $650,000. Assuming a sale for the full asking price, the property will be 38% off the peak.

And, whomever takes this property on will have to budget a significant amount of cash for repairs and upgrades to make this livable again.

Nothing down; big loss in Mission

Properties like the one we're profiling today have all-too-familiar sales histories: Modest appreciation from 1990-2000. A nice jump from 2000-2002. Then, the sky was virtually the limit during the bubble as this property almost doubled in value in the span of nearly three years.

Now, the value is retreating fast...

28052 Festivo, 92692
Asking price: $575,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $271
Income requirement: $143,750
Purchase price: $720,000
Purchase date: 8/2/2005
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 2,111 sq ft (built in 1979)
MLS: S508362 (226 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 11/16/07 -- $699,000 to $669,000
Price Reduced: 1/10/08 -- $669,000 to $639,000
Price Reduced: 2/19/08 -- $639,000 to $599,000
Zillow Zestimate: $605,500
2007 property tax: $7,351
Type: Single Family Residence
From listing: Amazing Forever Views across Capistrano Valley! Gorgeous Trilevel, huge family room with cozy fireplace, updated kitchen and baths, scraped ceilings, freshly painted, very clean, and ready to go! Possible RV access! Giant backyard with plenty of room for a pool!


View Larger Map

The property is listed as a short sale for $575,000, and we wish potential buyers good luck with that considering there was a total of $720,000 in loans taken out on this property in mid 2005: Yes, $0-down (80/20) financing on a $720,000 house. The notice of trustee sale on the first loan was for about $34,000 more than the original loan, so we can only assume not much (if any) of the principal has been paid off. There is a lot of debt on this property.

Assuming a short sale can be completed for the current asking price, the loss would be $179,500, including 6% sales costs. Not including transaction costs, this property would undergo a depreciation of 20%.

Bank-owned in Mission Viejo

It's hard to argue that this now REO in Mission Viejo had much of a chance - bad timing and other-people's-money financing pushed the former owner from ownership to default and eventual foreclosure all within about eight months.

26265 Buscador, 92692
Asking price: $589,000
Asking price/ sq ft: $233
Income requirement: $147,250
Borrower purchase price: $749,000
Borrower purchase date: 4/6/07
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,525 sq ft (built in 1980)
MLS: S530277 (3 days on Redfin)
Zillow Zestimate: $712,500
2007 property tax: $3,244
HOA dues: $64 + $19
Type: Single Family Residence
Stories: Two Levels
Lot size: 5,000 sq ft
From listing: Exceptional value on this stunning view home!! 4 bedroom 3 bath AND a huge bonus room. Main floor bedroom and bath. Main floor bedroom currenlty set up as office. Lush landscaping including Kio Pond. Panoramic view of city and hills. Master bedroom and bath completely remodeled. Newer air ducts, newer water heater, newer furnace and lots more!!

We're not quite sure what a "Kio pond" is. Perhaps it is a distant cousin of a Koi?

The previous owner paid $749,000 - but that is a bit misleading since they didn't actually use any of their own money. They were able to get 100% financing in the form of a $599,200 1st mortgage and a $149,800 2nd. They were already in default in less than five months.

The notice of trustee sale was then posted in December on the first loan for an amount of $627,156 (either few or no payments were apparently made on the loan), and the property went back to the bank in March for $636,750. One more for Countrywide's growing real estate portfolio.

If we assume a sale for the full asking price, it would mean a decline in value of 21% in about a year. The sale would also equate to a loss for the embattled lender of $195,340.

2003 rollback in Mission Viejo

Today's property is a short sale in Mission Viejo that has been priced roughly the same as its 2003 price. Five years of ownership will have earned this owner no profit, but a big black mark on their credit instead.

27541 Genil, 92691

Asking price: $424,990

Asking price/ sq ft: N/A
Income requirement: $106,247.5
Purchase price: $422,000
Purchase date: 10/28/03
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths

MLS: M08046724 (11 days on Redfin)

Zillow Zestimate: $469,500
2007 property tax: $4,664
Type: Detached, Single Family Residence

Stories: 1 Level
From listing: Great location!!! Property features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Tile floors throughout. Private patio in the back, perfect for entertaining. 2 Car garage plus driveway space. Very nicely landscaped with beautiful flowers. Must see to appreciate! Has great potential. Ready to move in condition. Walking distance from the high school.

Walking distance to the high school means expect huge crowds and traffic jams just about every Friday night in the fall for Mission Trabuco Hills football. And, as you can see from the street-level view below, it appears as if this there might be an issue with lots of cars parking on the street.

If this photo was taken during the week it probably means school was in session and students and others will be using your street for overflow parking. Something to think about if you were to become the next owner.
Zillow says the owners paid $422,000 in 2003. If we factor in inflation, it would be like paying $485,513 now.

Assuming the lender allows this short sale to go through, and that it is sold for full asking price, the loss would be $22,594, including 6% sales costs.

"Huh?" photos of the week

Here is some evidence as to why screen grabs, basic image editors and the MLS don't usually mix:


Yes this is an actual photo tied to an actual MLS listing. We have to admit it, though, the yellow arrow was kind of helpful in assisting us in identifying the physical location of property the listing goes with, 23741 Calle Ganador in Mission Viejo. Then again, we could have just as easily done the Google street view thing and seen the following. Wave hi to your new neighbor!


Listing description: BEAUTIFUL HOUSE ON A QUIET STREET IN A GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD. Open Floor Plan. Big Yards. Upgraded Main Bathroom, Good Looking Ceramic Tile thru-out the house. Brick Fireplace in the Living Room. Vaulted Ceilings. Please look at the pictures. No Mello Roos & Low Assoc-$16

The asking price is $400,000. 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,550 sq ft. Just came on to the market a few days ago. Last sold in 2004 for $570,000, so we're looking at a minimum depreciation of about 30%, unless they get over their asking price.

OK, you say, maybe it was a fluke the screen grab appeared with the listing? Nope. This time, we get an alternative view of the property and a whole lot more of the person's desktop as well. Might be time to run that Windows desktop cleanup wizard. Just sayin'.

Guess what...we're not out of the woods yet. Here is another of the photos posted with the listing:

This one manages to violate two rules at once: It is blurry almost beyond recognition, and has the TV going with who knows what on.

21% off '04 price in Mission

Properties continue to pop onto the market with asking prices significantly lower than their previous sales prices, but this one in Mission Viejo is a bit more stubborn than some. See, it was on the market for a while...came off...and is now back on (with a new picture).

The picture above is the main photo from the last time it was up for sale. This time, the angle's a bit different:
Still a nice-looking house, and still not able to be sold (yet?).

21916 Birchwood, 92692

Asking price: $475,000

Asking price/ sq ft: $310
Income requirement: $118,750
Purchase price: $600,000
Purchase date: 10/22/04
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,530 sq ft (built in 1987)

MLS: S527529 (1 day on Redfin)

Zillow Zestimate: $566,000
2007 property tax: $6,408
HOA dues: $60
Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Contemporary

Stories: Two Levels
From listing: Located Near Mission Viego Lake! Home Offers A Spacious Yard That Backs Up To Birchwood Park! Nice Cul De Sac Location! Great Schools!home Has Open Kicthen Area. Family Room With Dual Fireplace With Vault Ceilings! Must See! Hurry

This photo on the left from the "for sale" listing on Zillow, shows the house as being vacant. A little history: It sold for $100 over the final asking price of $599,100 in 2004 (the original asking price was $649,900, so perhaps the buyers at the time thought there were getting a good deal).

The property was up for sale in January for $549,900, went back and forth between decreases and increases, and finally settled on an asking price of $524,900 before falling off the market in early March.

Now, it's back with a new, lower asking price.

Assuming a sale at the current price, it would mean a loss of $153,500 off the previous sale price, including 6% sales costs. The depreciation, without including sales costs, would be about 21% off the 2004 price.

An "are we reaching fundamentals" alert: This property sold for $323,000 in 2001, according to Zillow. Assuming the property is now worth $475,000, that means it theoretically would have appreciated about 5.7% each year for seven years. That's a lot closer to "normal" appreciation than we're used to seeing.

More of the same in Mission Viejo

This is a former million-dollar house-turned foreclosure in Mission Viejo. It's sadly sitting vacant at a significant discount off the peak price, hoping to attract a buyer.

25731 Morales, Mission Viejo, 92691

Asking price: $694,900

Asking price/ sq ft: $261
Income requirement: $173,725
Purchase price: $849,043
Purchase date: 8/6/07
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,658 sq ft (built in 1976)

MLS: S522030 (29 days on Redfin)

Zillow Zestimate: $795,500
2007 property tax: $10,328
Type: Single Family Residence

Stories: Two Levels
Lot size: 6,600 sq ft
From listing: Wonderful home in the city of Mission Viejo. This home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, inside laundry area, master bedroom with a fireplace and balcony, formal dining area, family room with a cozy fireplace and built in entertainment center, 3 car garage, covered patio, and an in ground spa.

This property went for exactly $1 million at the peak. Less than one year later, it was in the foreclosure report. The interior photos don't exactly do the place any favors in terms of lighting, but what do you really expect when the place is vacant?

Nevertheless, this property has some potential for the right person willing to do the upgrades. The question is whether someone making about $173,000 per year (or, we guess, a very ambitious investor) would want to take this type of project on when they can get something newer for about the same price, though this other property is located in RSM.

Assuming a sale for the full current price, the depreciation would be $305,100, or 31% off the peak value, not including any transaction costs.

52% off in Mission Viejo

This near-2002 rollback in Mission has been on the market through numerous (15+) small yet methodical price cuts and still cannot find a buyer. When will someone step in and mercifully put this short-sale property out of its misery?

26035 VIA PERA #k2, 92691
Asking price: $222,500
Asking price/ sq ft: $192
Income requirement: $55,625
Purchase price: $460,000
Purchase date: 4/28/06
Size: 3 beds, 1.5 baths, 1,156 sq ft (built in 1972)
MLS: K07155560 (124 days on Redfin)
ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 10/31/07 -- $429,000 to $419,000
Price Reduced: 11/09/07 -- $419,000 to $399,000
Price Reduced: 11/14/07 -- $399,000 to $389,000
Price Reduced: 11/21/07 -- $389,000 to $369,000
Price Reduced: 11/28/07 -- $369,000 to $349,000
Price Reduced: 12/05/07 -- $349,000 to $339,000
Price Reduced: 12/11/07 -- $339,000 to $329,000
Price Reduced: 12/18/07 -- $329,000 to $309,000
Price Reduced: 12/26/07 -- $309,000 to $299,000
Price Reduced: 12/31/07 -- $299,000 to $279,000
Price Reduced: 01/08/08 -- $279,000 to $249,000
Price Reduced: 01/22/08 -- $249,000 to $239,000
Price Reduced: 02/06/08 -- $239,000 to $222,500
2006 property tax: $3,346
HOA dues: $312
Type: Attached, Condominium
Stories: 2 Level
From listing: * * * * * * * LENDER APPROVED PRICE * * * * * * * * * Nice home in Mission Viejo. Attached garage. 3bedroom on a quiet street. Great rental unit, if desired. SHORT-PAY SALE!!! Submit All Offers! Seller Highly Motivated!

Since there is only one photo available, we're including the graph of Zillow's valuation of the property over time. Yikes. This is perhaps more evidence that the banks might be finally coming to their senses and allowing major price cuts in order to move inventory.

Assuming that the listing is correct and the current price is still lender-approved, it would represent $206,500 worth of price reductions since the property first came onto the market in the fall - that's nearly the entire amount the property is now trying to sell for!

At $192 per square foot, this place seems pretty affordable for the right buyer. It's got three bedrooms, though only one-and-a-half baths, and the square footage is relatively small. This also would probably make a decent property for an investor to buy and rent out, if the price were low enough comparable to rents.

How would it compare to rentals, then, you ask? Here's another 3/1.5 built one year earlier that's about the same size asking $1,695 a month in rent. If we assume a 160 gross rent multiplier (a comfortable, conservative break-even estimate for an owner-occupant), then the property would then be valued at $271,200. That also means the GRM of our subject property is currently 132.

If the property is sold at the current asking price, it would represent a loss of $250,850, including 6% sales costs. Not including sales costs, the depreciation would be a mind-blowing 52% in less than two years.

Are the squatters out yet?

If you happened to want to preview this Mission Viejo REO townhouse right when it came on the market a little more than a month ago, you would've probably been disappointed. The listing description says it all:

REO--Bank Owned. Property sold AS-IS, but in great condition. Current occupants will be evicted from the home on 2/2/08 so the home cannot be shown at this time. This home is a rare 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom condo in a great neighborhood.

The bold is obviously our emphasis. Funny how the listing mentions the property is in "great condition," considering at the time it was being possessed by people about to get the boot, who, ostensibly, had not much to lose. Who knows what damage, if any, took place as the day of reckoning arrived.

The bank is asking between $474,900 and $529,900, so they must believe the house is still in top-notch condition. That's still near the bubble price for this place - $535,000 - which was recorded in late 2005, so it appears this property has a ways to fall. The value in 2002 was a "mere" $271,000.

How does this compare to other properties in the neighborhood? 27692 Argyll #113 is the same model and is asking $475k. It has been sitting on the market for more than 3 months without a sale. 27672 Falkirk #93, which is also the same model but is asking $439,900. Time on Redfin: 78 days.

And, don't forget about 27776 Berwick #22 - the low-price leader at $405,000. All in all, there are about 8 properties for sale in Highland Park.

But, the neighborhood should now be short at least one evictee.

Creative decorating in Mission Viejo

A wood board covering part of the front window outside and...interesting...paint color choices inside are just two of the features this Mission Viejo fixer-upper condo can call its own.

26046 Via Pera #C-3, 92691

Asking price: $269,900

Asking price/ sq ft: $233
Income requirement: $67,475
Peak purchase price: $399,500
Peak purchase date: 6/25/04
Size: 3 beds, 1.5 baths, 1,156 sq ft (built in 1972)

MLS: S517799 (19 days on Redfin)

2006 property tax: $4,270
HOA dues: $283
Type: Condominium

Style: Contemporary

Stories: Two Levels
From listing: Good location in middle of complex. Community pool. Attached one car garage with direct access. Needs minor TLC but worth the investment to make your own. Close to shopping and transportation.

I give whomever wrote the listing description a lot of credit. They subtly communicated the fact that this place is a little off while emphasizing that the right person has a potential opportunity to "make it their own" - a.k.a. work a miracle and bring the place back to respectability.

Judging by the sales history, it looks like this property likely went back to the bank at the end of December and has been on the market for about three weeks now. It will be interesting to see how long this takes to sell (and how many price reductions will be necessary).

Assuming a sale at the current full asking price, it would represent a decline of $129,600 or 32% from the top purchase price about three-and-a-half years ago.

$186 per square foot in Mission Viejo

Here's yet another bank property looking for offers. This time, it's one in Mission Viejo. Perhaps the former owners would have been perfect beneficiaries of Hillary's ludicrous housing "proposal."

25472 Maximus St, 92691

Asking price: $599,000

Asking price/ sq ft: $186
Income requirement: $149,750
Purchase price: $799,000
Purchase date: 3/15/2006
Size: 5 beds, 3 baths, 3,224 sq ft (built in 1969)

MLS: S512354

ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 12/03/07 -- $699,900 to $699,000
Price Reduced: 12/17/07 -- $699,000 to $650,000
2006 property tax: $3,637
Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Contemporary

Stories: Two Levels
Lot size: 9,739 sq ft
From listing: Bank Wants to See Offers Now! 5 Bd, 3 Ba Home with over 3200 square feet of living space on a Large Lot with a Huge backyard that includes a Private Spa, perfect for Entertaining! This is the perfect home to put your personal touches on and at a steal of a price! Located within close proximity to shopping and restaurants! Hurry, a deal like this will not be around long!
68 days on Redfin later, and this exact same deal is still around. Notice the high, clear wall in the backyard photo? Let's just say that this place is exceedingly freeway close. As in it overlooks the 5.

Like the house itself, the lot size is also quite big. But does anyone care? Hello...you'd be living virtually on top of the freeway!

Assuming this property somehow sells at the current asking price, we're looking at a nominal decline of $200,000 or 25% off the peak 2006 price. And most not working for real estate sales commissions are saying the real estate slump is not nearing an end?

23% off '05 price in MV

By looking at the sales history on Redfin, we can see the value of this Mission Viejo house went up by "just" $91,000 between 1991 and 1999 - though it actually decreased in value by $69,000 from 1991-1995 and a seller lost money on the transaction.

The property proceeded to more than double in value between 1999 and 2004 (bubble anyone?) from $410,000 to an astounding $840,000. Even more astounding is a bagholder was found in July of 2005 who was willing to pay nearly $1 million for this property ($975,000).

Was this an actual transaction? Or is this a Redfin mistake and what we're actually seeing is some sort of refinance/cash out? Sorry, but this doesn't look like a million-dollar place to me. Easily livable, yes. Luxury? No way.

Today's market seem to agree with me. Now the property is up for sale for what would be a very sizable loss...

Asking price: $754,900
Asking price/ sq ft: $258
Income requirement: $188,725
Purchase price: $975,000
Purchase date: 7/21/2005
Size: 5 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,923 sq ft (built in 1970)

MLS: S513615 (22 days on Redfin)

2006 property tax: $10,173
HOA dues: $16
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Spanish
Stories: Two Levels
Lot size: 7,704 sq ft
From listing: Hardwood Floors, Spanish Pavers, Curb APPEAL with Arched walkways! Newer carpet, Large family room with wet bar and fireplace.

Trying to put ourselves into a buyer's frame of mind about this place...

Pros: Location near a park and fairly close to the lake. Good-sized lot (common for this age) and home. Lots of bedrooms - bring your relatives!

Cons: Not enough bathrooms. Curb appeal is a C/C+ at best. Photos make it look poorly lit in parts. Inside looks like it needs some updating.

In conclusion: Not bad, but nothing special. This is before looking at the price.

The potential loss on this property is pretty significant. Assuming a sale at the full asking price, the shortfall would be $265,394, including 6% sales costs.

The decline from the peak - not including transaction costs - would be about 23%.