Sold home stats through June 24

Photo: Dana Point sunset, Vu Bui

Here are the latest DataQuick home sales stats via the OC Register. The information covers the 22 business days ending June 24.


In case you're hungry for more charts, here's another. It's Steve Thomas' pending sales data for South Orange County, through June 26:


And, the number of distressed South OC properties (foreclosures and short sales) in the MLS this year, through June 26:

Is the spring selling season over?

Laguna Niguel coastline, 1999. Photo by rgtmum.

Two weeks' worth of data is just that, but the latest DataQuick homes sales numbers on the OC Register's Web site seem to suggest we may have already hit a peak in sales volume for 2008.

This is the second consecutive week that the reported number of homes sold in Orange County was less than the previous week's total. If this holds up, the peak number of sales this year would be 2,389, recorded during the 22 business days ending June 5.

How significant was the latest drop in sales volume for all of OC during the latest reporting period, which ended June 16? It was nearly 5% below the sales numbers for the previous period (ending June 11) and about 7% below the number of homes sold during the 22 days ending June 5.

We'll be following this to see what the numbers continue to tell us. Below is the South OC data, broken out by ZIP code. There were 636 sales during this period, down 19 from the previous week's data.



See you all on Monday...

Closing the loop...

In today's post, we're going to update you on the fate of some of the properties we've featured in the past few months.

29432 Kensington Dr, Laguna Niguel, 92677
Asking price: $635,000
Previous purchase price: $1,089,000
Previous purchase date: 12/28/06
Profile date: 2/28
This house was priced 42% below its 2006 price. As you can imagine, there was plenty of buyer interest.
Status: SOLD for $750,000 - 18% above the asking price and 31% below peak value

21591 Partridge Street, Trabuco Canyon, 92679
Asking price: $899,000
Previous purchase price: $1,133,000
Previous purchase date: 6/12/06
Profile date: 2/25
We noted a blurry photo on this listing that shouldn't be within 50 feet of a property with this kind of price tag. If a buyer was located and the sale could have closed, this one would have been nearly a $300,000 loss.
Status: FORECLOSURE - Back to the bank on March 18 for $890,964. We believe this property is still sitting as an REO and has not come back on the market yet.

25731 Morales, Mission Viejo, 92691
Asking price: $694,900
Previous purchase price: $849,043
Previous purchase date: 8/6/07
Profile date: 3/17
This property went for $1 million in 2006 before becoming a foreclosure in 2007.
Status: SOLD for $634,500 - 9% below the asking price and 37% off the peak price

31421 Paseo Diosa, San Juan, 92675
Asking price: $1,475,000
Purchase price: $1,648,000
Purchase date: 6/20/06
Profile date: 3/12
The owners bought the property new from William Lyon Homes at the peak of the market. They have been chasing it down ever since.
Status: PREFORECLOSURE, STILL ON MARKET - The listing is still active, though a notice of default was filed at the end of March. The current asking price is $1.275 million, which is $373,000 below the previous sales price.

25711 Califia Drive, Laguna Hills, 92653
Asking price: $449,900
Bank purchase price: $386,385
Bank purchase date: 12/19/07
Profile date: 2/16
This property, which appears to be a former flip, went REO when we profield it in February. It sold for $660,000 at the peak in September 2005.
Status: SOLD for $450,000 - 32% off the peak price

South OC home stats through June 11

Here are the latest DataQuick home stats, as published by the OC Register. The data are from the 22 business days ending June 11.



Countywide, home sales figures continue to show improvement, even if they still are behind 2007's sales numbers. It's been a historically bad year. Prices also continue to fall sharply as distressed properties seemingly have a stranglehold on the market.

South OC is also struggling. Sales totals for the region are still more than 25% below last year's numbers - despite the fact that a number of ZIP codes are now showing positive year-over-year results. Our weighted average of medians shows prices are also down by about 20%.

South OC home stats, May

Here are the DataQuick stats for the month of May, as reported in today's OC Register.


As you can see from the data, both the median price and number of sales in South OC were way down from year-ago levels. That's particularly discouraging considering how many properties have been severely discounted from peak pricing.

However, there is some reason to be a bit optimistic. A handful of ZIPs have shown increased sales, and either are above or very close to last year's numbers. Those include Mission Viejo (92691), Laguna Niguel (92677) and San Clemente (92672).

During the earlier stages of the 1990s bust, there were a few spurts of activity that led to bottom-calling speculation. There has not been anything quite like that this time considering year-over-year sales numbers have been down for quite some time.

There have been reports of increase pending sales. Once those translate to closed sales (if they do), then perhaps we will begin having more widespread bottom-calling arguments again.

We would encourage you, though, to keep an eye on the foreclosure numbers, because they are also a predictor of what the market will look like in the future. Since we are having record levels of foreclosures, and more distressed homes are appearing on the market, there is no indication that a quick turnaround is at hand.

In fact, what it is showing right now is that the OC real estate market will continue to be overwhelmed with foreclosures and short sales for some time.

2003 rollbacks: Here they come

A few examples don't make for a solid trend, but we've noticed a handful of 2003 rollbacks have recently come on to the market.

Once a rare phenomenon confined to small condos in "lower-end" pockets, the 2003 rollback - a property up for sale with an asking price below the price it was sold for five years ago - is slowly becoming more and more common in more parts of South Orange County.

Here are some examples of properties that have hit the MLS in the past couple weeks that fit the pattern.

9 Tanglewood, Aliso Viejo, 92656
Asking price: $629,900
2003 purchase price: $641,500
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,163 sq ft (built in 1990)
Comment: This REO came up for sale in mid-February for $650,000. Its price attracted plenty of interest, and the property went pending in March. Unfortunately, it could not be saved from foreclosure and went back to the bank in April for $580,000.

21182 Chestnut #209, Mission Viejo, 92691
Asking price: $325,900
2003 purchase price: $362,000
Size: 3 beds. 3 baths, 2,519 sq ft (built in 1986)
Comment: The current owner used 89% financing to purchase the home. We're not sure if any money was pulled out of the property later. If it sells at the current asking price, it would mean a loss of $55,654, including 6% sales costs. Note: The photo is of another unit in the complex.

21436 Firwood, Lake Forest, 92630
Asking price: $325,000
2003 purchase price: $375,000
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,746 sq ft (built in 1983)
Comment: This property is in "good overall shape" - whatever that means. The current owner paid $519,000 in 2005 and used 90% financing from World Savings Bank. If the property sells at the current price (they actually started out by listing at $225,000 before raising the price by $100,000) the loss would be $213,500, including sales costs.

3 Redbud #126, RSM, 92688
Asking price: $264,900
2003 purchase price: $275,00
Size: 2 beds, 2 baths, 1,002 sq ft (built in 1987)
Comment: This now-REO went for $385,000 at the peak in 2006. The previous owner used 100% financing and couldn't keep the condo for too long. It went back to the bank in April, but it appears the lender is putting in new carpet and paint to try and help get this place sold.

Back to the bank

Since we posted earlier today on last month's foreclosure numbers, we thought you also might want to see a sampling of a few of the properties that have gone back to the bank in the past week as full-fledged foreclosures, after nobody bought them at auction.

These new REOs come from all parts of South County - and are across virtually every price range. These painful real estate times are not only reserved for the lower-end properties.

Remember, the bank purchase price is not necessarily what the lender will ask for once it is listed for sale on the MLS.

70 Nantucket, Aliso Viejo, 92656
Bank purchase price: $556,000
Notice of sale amount*: $643,330
Previous purchase price: $563,000
Purchase date: 3/23/04
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,609 sq ft

74 Bedstraw Loop, Ladera Ranch, 92694
Bank purchase price: $674,100
Notice of sale amount: $751,430
Previous purchase price: $611,500
Purchase date: 2/25/04
Size: 5 beds, 3.5 baths, 2,556 sq ft

27712 Paseo Barona, SJC, 92675
Bank purchase price: $743,928
Notice of sale amount: $741,798
Previous purchase date: 9/10/03
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 2,651 sq ft


25075 Costeau, Laguna Hills, 92653
Bank purchase price: $686,776
Notice of sale amount: $663,142
Previous purchase price: $790,000
Purchase date: 12/21/05
Size: 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,679 sq ft
Note: Photo is of another house on the street

52 Saint Croix, Laguna Niguel, 92677
Bank purchase price: $642,237
Notice of sale amount: $642,203
Previous purchase price: $740,000
Purchase date: 9/20/05
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,746 sq ft


34322 Camino El Molino, Dana Point, 92624
Bank purchase price: $718,529
Notice of sale amount: $706,690
Previous purchase price: $736,000
Purchase date: 3/8/04
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,500 sq ft


* - This includes the amount of the outstanding loan, plus any additional fees and interest. This is typically also the opening bid amount, but banks have begun lowering opening bid amounts to attract bidders.

South OC home stats, May 30

Here are the latest DataQuick stats as reported by the OC Register. The data cover the 22 business days ending May 14.


Notice that just two South County ZIPs recorded year-over-year increases in the median price of a home sold during this period: 92624 in Dana Point. Since that area's sales are down, that means that no ZIP in South OC saw both an increase in sales and median price compared to last year.

But, Lake Forest, RSM and Foothill Ranch are now positive in terms of year-over-year sales volume. Laguna Beach and Dana Point (92629) - two of the area's top luxury enclaves - both performed poorly. Coto/Trabuco Canyon did comparably better in this snapshot, but both median price and sales volume were down.

Will they or won't they?

There has been a slew of "good news" recently about the local real estate market:

• County home sales totaled more than 2,000 for the first time since the credit crunch
• "Market time" falls more, under 6 months
  

Then, there is the bad news:

• Foreclosures hit a record high in April; don't appear to be slowing down
  
• The % of distressed inventory is up 8.8% countywide
  

And, don't forget the bad news in the good news: Sales numbers for April were up month-over-month compared to March, but down year-over-year and down significantly from historical April averages. Close the book on April, and we'll see what happens in May.

Here are some notable short sales in the "backup offers accepted" phase we wonder will actually make it to closing considering the large disparity between the last asking price and the purchase price. Remember, from what we have seen, an exceedingly large percentage of properties purchased during the bubble were done with large amounts of financing. Most people could never really afford the rising prices; they were just allowed to finance more.

All also are in the $400k asking price range:

24731 Embajadores Ln, MV, 92691
Asking price: $474,900
Previous purchase price: $786,000
Date: 11/15/05
Size: 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,700 sq ft
Potential loss*: $339,594
% decline (not incl sales costs): 40%

24351 Registry Ct, LN, 92677
Asking price: $439,900
Previous purchase price: $583,000
Date: 8/31/05
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,509 sq ft
Potential loss: $169,494
% decline: 25%


29 Jasmine Creek Ln, LH, 92653
Asking price: $417,000
Previous purchase price: $660,000
Date: 3/30/07
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,593 sq ft
Potential loss: $268,020
% decline: 37%

76 Paseo Vis, SC, 92673
Asking price: $485,000
Previous purchase price: $585,000
Date: 5/19/05
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,300 sq ft
Potential loss: $129,100
% decline: 17%

17 Monticello Ln, RSM, 92688
Asking price: $499,000
Previous purchase price: $620,000
Date: 12/01/05
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 1,600 sq ft
Potential loss: $150,940
% decline: 20%

The other pattern we've noticed is that properties headed for escrow also include a handful of foreclosures, as well as a bunch with owners cashing out who have held their properties for a very long time.

* - "Best-case" scenario that assumes the possibility of a completed sale for the full asking price, minus 6% sales costs.

South OC home stats, May 16

Here are the latest DataQuick numbers for the 22 business days ending April 28, courtesy of the OC Register.

April home stats: Another view

The LA Times, OC Register and other media outlets tend to use data from DataQuick to measure home prices and sales. Here's data we're trying out from a different source: The County Recorder's Office via Melissa Data.

The information is for the month of April, and compares that data to numbers from April of 2007.




Important thing to be aware of: This data includes "average"sales price instead of median sales price, so we're assuming it is measuring the mean. This is easily skewed by a small number of high-end sales, particularly in ZIPs with few total sales (for instance, if there was a $5 million home sold and the only other sales in that ZIP code were four for $200,000 each, the median would be $200,000 but the mean would be $1,160,000). Which is closer to describing the true "average" home sold?

As you can see, the sales data is a bit more optimistic than the last DataQuick info - which mirrors some reports of increased demand realtors like Steve Thomas have been talking about for a number of weeks now. Still, virtually across the board sales totals are down from last year.

Particularly disappointing were Laguna Niguel (down 44.94%) Mission Viejo - 92692 (down 47.17%) and San Clemente - 92673 (down 44.64%). Laguna Niguel's sales total for the month also was about 70% below the April 2005 sales count; same thing for the 92692 ZIP in Mission. The sales total in the 92673 ZIP in San Clemente was 64% below the April 2005 selling frenzy.

Two areas (Capo Beach, 92624 and Foothill Ranch, 91610) saw an increase in year-over-year sales compared to April 2007. A third, San Clemente, 92672, recorded the same number of sales as last April for a 0% gain/loss. It should be noted, though, that 92624 and 92610 were the two South OC ZIPs with the least amount of sales.

South OC home stats, May 2

Here are the latest home stats as reported by the OC Register. The DataQuick data is for the 22 business days ending April 14.




Steve Thomas from Re/Max is reporting that pending sales are now higher than they were at the same time last year. Here is his chart:

Some quotes from his newsletter, which covers market data through May 1: "The first time home buyer wave continues to grow and plant the seeds to an eventual recovery. The reports from the streets of Orange County are unanimous: first time home buyers are fueling a surge in activity that continues to flourish and has been steadily growing since the middle of February. ...

"Demand, a snapshot of the prior 30 days of escrow activity, has climbed by an additional 166 escrows in the past two weeks to 2,540. Last year at this time, demand was at 1,863 escrows, 677 fewer than today. Two years ago it was at 2,701, or 161 additional escrows."

So far, Thomas' increasingly optimistic pending sales data has not translated to year-over-year sales increases in the DataQuick numbers - sales are still down virtually across the board in Orange County, which likely means one of two things: a) the DataQuick data lags far enough that it does not yet reflect what is actually going on in the market, or b) the amount of properties falling out of escrow is enough to counteract the increased number of pending sales.

Thomas' assertion about the "surge in activity" that "continues to flourish" does not address the fact that pending sales usually peak in the early part of the year (which makes perfect sense, since more sales typically go on to close in March and April than in other months of the year) and steadily drops off the rest of the year, once the peak is reached. This year it does not look like March and April were especially strong, but pending sales are still increasing.

We may, then, be in for a better May. Maybe we will see a story like this:

"The county's new-home market caught fire...as sales shot up while inventory went down.

If both trends continue, real estate analysts said the county's housing slump could be over by the end of this year.

"We're seeing indicators that show the economy is in a similar situation to what it was (in July of) last year. The big difference is that buyers now are confident. They are perceiving that this is the end of the down cycle, not the beginning," said John Shumway, president of Market Profiles, a real estate consulting company in Costa Mesa.

Or perhaps not...This story was printed in the OC Register in March 1991 - about four years before the actual end of that down cycle.

(Another) Ladera Ranch foreclosure

Ladera Ranch came up in the LA Times' new foreclosure widget as being the area in Orange County with the worst rate of households per foreclosure (15.58 - but, the number is likely off since the number of homes in the area seems to be understated). So, today we're featuring a foreclosure property in Ladera's Covenant Hills that is selling for a huge markdown off the 2006 price.

14 Drackert Lane, 92694

Asking price: $879,900

Asking price/ sq ft: $251
Income requirement: $219,975
Buyer purchase price: $1,500,000
Buyer purchase date: 8/28/06
Size: 4 beds, 4 baths, 3,500 sq ft (built in 2005)

MLS: S529187 (8 days on Redfin)

Zillow Zestimate: $1,235,000
2007 property tax: $23,920.54 (2006 taxes of $22,129.58 unpaid)
HOA dues: $404
Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Mediterranean

Stories: Two Levels
Lot size: 6,500 sq ft
From listing: Beautiful home in desired gated community of Covenant Hills. Cul-de-Sac location with landscaped front. Backyard landscaped needs completed. Main floor Master bedroom and bath/spa including jacuzzi tub. His and her closets with double sinks. Custom paint, crown moulding, through out home. Travertine floors downstairs. Kitchen with island and granite counter tops.

The original owner walked away with a cool $455k in sales proceeds after holding the property for about a year and selling it to our greater fool in 2006 for $1.5 million. The progression from there is not hard to predict:

8/28/06: GF puts $75,950 down and finances $1,424,050 via a $1,199,200 1st mortgage and a $224,850 2nd from First Franklin.
9/24/07: Notice of default filed in the amount of $32,236.
2/1/08: Notice of trustee sale filed, amount is $1,271,924.
3/18/08: Home scheduled to be auctioned. Opening bid of $1,202,574.95.

Now, the vacant property is on the market. Assuming a sale at the full asking price, the loss would be $672,894 off the previous sales price, including 6% sales costs. Not including transaction costs, that would also be a depreciation of 41% off the previous sales price.

Think about that: 41% off in less than two years. In a luxury neighborhood. Of course, there is always the possibility that the price is artificially low to attract multiple bids. We will know for sure when this property sells.

The latest home stats came out Friday, and there's still not really much of an improvement on the South OC numbers - if anything, the retreat continues. Here are the DataQuick stats for the 22 business days ending April 8, as reported by the OC Register:

Are the RE storm clouds lifting?

Steve Thomas of Re/Max thinks so, and mentioned point blank in his latest report that he believes "the market is improving." Here is some of his reasoning:

The majority of the upswing in demand is in the lower ranges. Our agents in the trenches are unanimously reporting that there is a large wave of first time home buyer activity. First time home buyers had been priced out of the market and dwindled in numbers during the last couple years of the housing boom. But, prices have finally fallen to a point where they can now afford to purchase and that is precisely what they are doing.

We agree the brunt of the current demand seems to be in the "lower ranges" - that is to say, homes $500k and below. Not surprising since these are the homes the majority of residents can afford. As prices decline, it is natural to see more buyers jumping in.

Many properties now in escrow were positioned well below peak pricing (a lot of REOs), or appear to be owners who purchased well before values really got out of hand and were able to price effectively.

The jury is still out until this demand shows up in the sales numbers, but it would not be surprising if there was (finally) a year-over-year increase in sales volume - we can't keep falling forever. It will be interesting to see what the homes that are in the escrow process now (apparently it is slanted towards REOs and distress sales, plus lower-end properties taken by buyers who see them as "affordable" compared to bubble pricing) do to future pricing when they close, since the properties being bought and sold today help establish the comps moving forward.

Here is the first chart from Thomas' data, which covers distressed inventory. The "% change" column compares the percentage of distressed inventory now to two weeks ago. All data is as of April 17.

As you can see, South OC's distressed inventory remained virtually unchanged and is now 28.8% - meaning almost 30% of homes for sale on the MLS have been tagged as either a foreclosure or a short sale. OC as a whole nudged upward to 35.11%. Keep an eye on Coto de Caza - this city had the largest uptick in distressed inventory percentage-wise in South County. Here is a visual of foreclosure activity in the area:
Now, here is Thomas' market time data, or the amount of months it would theoretically take for buyers to absorb all the MLS properties for sale given the current pace of pendings.


Couple of notes on this chart: 1) The All South OC market time in the 1 year ago column is simply the median of all the city data , since we do not have complete information from back then. 2) Thomas' average asking prices appear to be skewed by high-priced listings, since these figures tend to be significantly higher than the median sales prices we're seeing. We assume he is using the mean as opposed to the median. Also remember that properties typically sell for less than the asking price, so that is why the average might be a bit higher than closed sales.

March home stats

Here are the DataQuick numbers for March, as seen in the OC Register and on its Web site. As usual, we added in a weighted median for all of South OC, and compared this along with the sales total to March 2007 data from the Register archive.




Some notes:

• There was a modest spring bounce last month - sales rose from 368 in February to 439 in March. This represents an increase of 19%.
  
  
• Once again, there is only one median that is more than $1 million - Laguna Beach's 92651.
  
  
• Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo (92692) and Trabuco Canyon/Coto had the worst year-over-year decline in terms of number of sales. The median price decline in Laguna Hills was the largest of any ZIP (52%). All this means is the types of properties that more frequently changed hands in this area were less expensive - it doesn't say much (if anything at all) about the situation in high-end parts like Nellie Gail.
  
  
• Laguna Niguel is the only area to see a positive year-over-year change in the median, but as we mentioned it is seeing a significant slowdown in terms of sales volume. No surprise, since sales volume is down across the board.
  

South OC stats, April 11

Here are DataQuick's home sales for the 22 business days ending March 26, as reported in the Orange County Register.


If there is in fact a comeback underway, it is not showing up in the sales data yet. The only ZIP with a positive year-over-year change in sales volume is 92694, which also happens to be the one with the smallest number of sales.

The largest year-over-year decline in the median price was Laguna Hills (92653) down to $389,500, and the largest decline in sales was 92692 (Mission Viejo) with a -67.1% change.

The South OC median is still down, and the sales volume is still nearly half of what it was at the same time last year.

South OC stats, April 4

We are hearing more rumblings from people in the real estate biz that activity is picking up. It would make sense considering after more than a year of historically awful real estate numbers, things can't fall much lower and would have to improve at some point, even if slightly. At least, that's what happened in the early 90s well before a real recovery was at hand.

Then again, some said the same thing last year, so we're skeptical until the sales data tell otherwise. Since DataQuick info does lag, we won't really know for sure just how much "better" things are for at least a few more weeks. Here is the latest data released by the OC Register, for the 22 business days ending March 20.



Notice this sales data shows some improvement in a handful of ZIPs, but many others, including Laguna Niguel (92677), RSM (92688) and Mission Viejo (92692) are running significantly lower than 2007 totals. San Clemente (92672) saw the worst year-over-year decline in number of sales.

Overall, the South OC median is 13.7% below what it was last year, and there were about half as many homes sold during the time these numbers were collected this year as there were in 2007.

21% off '04 price in Mission

Properties continue to pop onto the market with asking prices significantly lower than their previous sales prices, but this one in Mission Viejo is a bit more stubborn than some. See, it was on the market for a while...came off...and is now back on (with a new picture).

The picture above is the main photo from the last time it was up for sale. This time, the angle's a bit different:
Still a nice-looking house, and still not able to be sold (yet?).

21916 Birchwood, 92692

Asking price: $475,000

Asking price/ sq ft: $310
Income requirement: $118,750
Purchase price: $600,000
Purchase date: 10/22/04
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,530 sq ft (built in 1987)

MLS: S527529 (1 day on Redfin)

Zillow Zestimate: $566,000
2007 property tax: $6,408
HOA dues: $60
Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Contemporary

Stories: Two Levels
From listing: Located Near Mission Viego Lake! Home Offers A Spacious Yard That Backs Up To Birchwood Park! Nice Cul De Sac Location! Great Schools!home Has Open Kicthen Area. Family Room With Dual Fireplace With Vault Ceilings! Must See! Hurry

This photo on the left from the "for sale" listing on Zillow, shows the house as being vacant. A little history: It sold for $100 over the final asking price of $599,100 in 2004 (the original asking price was $649,900, so perhaps the buyers at the time thought there were getting a good deal).

The property was up for sale in January for $549,900, went back and forth between decreases and increases, and finally settled on an asking price of $524,900 before falling off the market in early March.

Now, it's back with a new, lower asking price.

Assuming a sale at the current price, it would mean a loss of $153,500 off the previous sale price, including 6% sales costs. The depreciation, without including sales costs, would be about 21% off the 2004 price.

An "are we reaching fundamentals" alert: This property sold for $323,000 in 2001, according to Zillow. Assuming the property is now worth $475,000, that means it theoretically would have appreciated about 5.7% each year for seven years. That's a lot closer to "normal" appreciation than we're used to seeing.