Foreclosure stats, June 2008

The latest South OC stats from ForeclosureRadar show new notices of default and the number of foreclosure properties that went back to the bank during the month of June decreased from May's totals - but they were still significantly higher than the totals from a year ago. The South Orange County numbers mirrored those of Orange County as a whole.

Here are the notice of default numbers for June 2008:



These are the REO stats - properties that went back to the bank at auction:


Image credit: Steve Rhodes

Sold home stats through June 24

Photo: Dana Point sunset, Vu Bui

Here are the latest DataQuick home sales stats via the OC Register. The information covers the 22 business days ending June 24.


In case you're hungry for more charts, here's another. It's Steve Thomas' pending sales data for South Orange County, through June 26:


And, the number of distressed South OC properties (foreclosures and short sales) in the MLS this year, through June 26:

Is the spring selling season over?

Laguna Niguel coastline, 1999. Photo by rgtmum.

Two weeks' worth of data is just that, but the latest DataQuick homes sales numbers on the OC Register's Web site seem to suggest we may have already hit a peak in sales volume for 2008.

This is the second consecutive week that the reported number of homes sold in Orange County was less than the previous week's total. If this holds up, the peak number of sales this year would be 2,389, recorded during the 22 business days ending June 5.

How significant was the latest drop in sales volume for all of OC during the latest reporting period, which ended June 16? It was nearly 5% below the sales numbers for the previous period (ending June 11) and about 7% below the number of homes sold during the 22 days ending June 5.

We'll be following this to see what the numbers continue to tell us. Below is the South OC data, broken out by ZIP code. There were 636 sales during this period, down 19 from the previous week's data.



See you all on Monday...

South OC home stats through June 11

Here are the latest DataQuick home stats, as published by the OC Register. The data are from the 22 business days ending June 11.



Countywide, home sales figures continue to show improvement, even if they still are behind 2007's sales numbers. It's been a historically bad year. Prices also continue to fall sharply as distressed properties seemingly have a stranglehold on the market.

South OC is also struggling. Sales totals for the region are still more than 25% below last year's numbers - despite the fact that a number of ZIP codes are now showing positive year-over-year results. Our weighted average of medians shows prices are also down by about 20%.

South OC home stats, May

Here are the DataQuick stats for the month of May, as reported in today's OC Register.


As you can see from the data, both the median price and number of sales in South OC were way down from year-ago levels. That's particularly discouraging considering how many properties have been severely discounted from peak pricing.

However, there is some reason to be a bit optimistic. A handful of ZIPs have shown increased sales, and either are above or very close to last year's numbers. Those include Mission Viejo (92691), Laguna Niguel (92677) and San Clemente (92672).

During the earlier stages of the 1990s bust, there were a few spurts of activity that led to bottom-calling speculation. There has not been anything quite like that this time considering year-over-year sales numbers have been down for quite some time.

There have been reports of increase pending sales. Once those translate to closed sales (if they do), then perhaps we will begin having more widespread bottom-calling arguments again.

We would encourage you, though, to keep an eye on the foreclosure numbers, because they are also a predictor of what the market will look like in the future. Since we are having record levels of foreclosures, and more distressed homes are appearing on the market, there is no indication that a quick turnaround is at hand.

In fact, what it is showing right now is that the OC real estate market will continue to be overwhelmed with foreclosures and short sales for some time.

May foreclosure numbers

Here are the May foreclosure numbers from ForeclosureRadar.com (if you're looking for foreclosure data, they've got the most up-to-date info out there).

REOs on our chart are foreclosures that were sold back to the bank at auction - this does not include properties sold to third parties at auction. These are homes that will be back on the market for sale (theoretically) soon and will be adding to the local inventory.

NOD stands for notice of default - the first stage of the formal foreclosure process. These numbers are helpful because they serve as forward-looking indicators for foreclosure numbers of the future.






As you can see, NODs and REOs are up significantly in South County when compared to 2007. If you compare to April, REOs were up, but notice of defaults were down slightly.

By this measure, Lake Forest (92630) is the most distressed market, since it had the most new NODs and the most REOs. It is surprising that Laguna Niguel was only two NODs behind.

Countywide, all foreclosures (NODs, notice of trustee sales and foreclosure sales) were up 18% compared to April, and up 302% year-over-year. Orange County ranked 32 out of 54 counties in California in terms of population per foreclosure sale (1 sale for every 2,307 people). Riverside was at the top, with a foreclosure for every 548 people.

South OC home stats, May 30

Here are the latest DataQuick stats as reported by the OC Register. The data cover the 22 business days ending May 14.


Notice that just two South County ZIPs recorded year-over-year increases in the median price of a home sold during this period: 92624 in Dana Point. Since that area's sales are down, that means that no ZIP in South OC saw both an increase in sales and median price compared to last year.

But, Lake Forest, RSM and Foothill Ranch are now positive in terms of year-over-year sales volume. Laguna Beach and Dana Point (92629) - two of the area's top luxury enclaves - both performed poorly. Coto/Trabuco Canyon did comparably better in this snapshot, but both median price and sales volume were down.

South OC home stats, May 16

Here are the latest DataQuick numbers for the 22 business days ending April 28, courtesy of the OC Register.

April home stats: Another view

The LA Times, OC Register and other media outlets tend to use data from DataQuick to measure home prices and sales. Here's data we're trying out from a different source: The County Recorder's Office via Melissa Data.

The information is for the month of April, and compares that data to numbers from April of 2007.




Important thing to be aware of: This data includes "average"sales price instead of median sales price, so we're assuming it is measuring the mean. This is easily skewed by a small number of high-end sales, particularly in ZIPs with few total sales (for instance, if there was a $5 million home sold and the only other sales in that ZIP code were four for $200,000 each, the median would be $200,000 but the mean would be $1,160,000). Which is closer to describing the true "average" home sold?

As you can see, the sales data is a bit more optimistic than the last DataQuick info - which mirrors some reports of increased demand realtors like Steve Thomas have been talking about for a number of weeks now. Still, virtually across the board sales totals are down from last year.

Particularly disappointing were Laguna Niguel (down 44.94%) Mission Viejo - 92692 (down 47.17%) and San Clemente - 92673 (down 44.64%). Laguna Niguel's sales total for the month also was about 70% below the April 2005 sales count; same thing for the 92692 ZIP in Mission. The sales total in the 92673 ZIP in San Clemente was 64% below the April 2005 selling frenzy.

Two areas (Capo Beach, 92624 and Foothill Ranch, 91610) saw an increase in year-over-year sales compared to April 2007. A third, San Clemente, 92672, recorded the same number of sales as last April for a 0% gain/loss. It should be noted, though, that 92624 and 92610 were the two South OC ZIPs with the least amount of sales.

South OC home stats, May 2

Here are the latest home stats as reported by the OC Register. The DataQuick data is for the 22 business days ending April 14.




Steve Thomas from Re/Max is reporting that pending sales are now higher than they were at the same time last year. Here is his chart:

Some quotes from his newsletter, which covers market data through May 1: "The first time home buyer wave continues to grow and plant the seeds to an eventual recovery. The reports from the streets of Orange County are unanimous: first time home buyers are fueling a surge in activity that continues to flourish and has been steadily growing since the middle of February. ...

"Demand, a snapshot of the prior 30 days of escrow activity, has climbed by an additional 166 escrows in the past two weeks to 2,540. Last year at this time, demand was at 1,863 escrows, 677 fewer than today. Two years ago it was at 2,701, or 161 additional escrows."

So far, Thomas' increasingly optimistic pending sales data has not translated to year-over-year sales increases in the DataQuick numbers - sales are still down virtually across the board in Orange County, which likely means one of two things: a) the DataQuick data lags far enough that it does not yet reflect what is actually going on in the market, or b) the amount of properties falling out of escrow is enough to counteract the increased number of pending sales.

Thomas' assertion about the "surge in activity" that "continues to flourish" does not address the fact that pending sales usually peak in the early part of the year (which makes perfect sense, since more sales typically go on to close in March and April than in other months of the year) and steadily drops off the rest of the year, once the peak is reached. This year it does not look like March and April were especially strong, but pending sales are still increasing.

We may, then, be in for a better May. Maybe we will see a story like this:

"The county's new-home market caught fire...as sales shot up while inventory went down.

If both trends continue, real estate analysts said the county's housing slump could be over by the end of this year.

"We're seeing indicators that show the economy is in a similar situation to what it was (in July of) last year. The big difference is that buyers now are confident. They are perceiving that this is the end of the down cycle, not the beginning," said John Shumway, president of Market Profiles, a real estate consulting company in Costa Mesa.

Or perhaps not...This story was printed in the OC Register in March 1991 - about four years before the actual end of that down cycle.

(Another) Ladera Ranch foreclosure

Ladera Ranch came up in the LA Times' new foreclosure widget as being the area in Orange County with the worst rate of households per foreclosure (15.58 - but, the number is likely off since the number of homes in the area seems to be understated). So, today we're featuring a foreclosure property in Ladera's Covenant Hills that is selling for a huge markdown off the 2006 price.

14 Drackert Lane, 92694

Asking price: $879,900

Asking price/ sq ft: $251
Income requirement: $219,975
Buyer purchase price: $1,500,000
Buyer purchase date: 8/28/06
Size: 4 beds, 4 baths, 3,500 sq ft (built in 2005)

MLS: S529187 (8 days on Redfin)

Zillow Zestimate: $1,235,000
2007 property tax: $23,920.54 (2006 taxes of $22,129.58 unpaid)
HOA dues: $404
Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Mediterranean

Stories: Two Levels
Lot size: 6,500 sq ft
From listing: Beautiful home in desired gated community of Covenant Hills. Cul-de-Sac location with landscaped front. Backyard landscaped needs completed. Main floor Master bedroom and bath/spa including jacuzzi tub. His and her closets with double sinks. Custom paint, crown moulding, through out home. Travertine floors downstairs. Kitchen with island and granite counter tops.

The original owner walked away with a cool $455k in sales proceeds after holding the property for about a year and selling it to our greater fool in 2006 for $1.5 million. The progression from there is not hard to predict:

8/28/06: GF puts $75,950 down and finances $1,424,050 via a $1,199,200 1st mortgage and a $224,850 2nd from First Franklin.
9/24/07: Notice of default filed in the amount of $32,236.
2/1/08: Notice of trustee sale filed, amount is $1,271,924.
3/18/08: Home scheduled to be auctioned. Opening bid of $1,202,574.95.

Now, the vacant property is on the market. Assuming a sale at the full asking price, the loss would be $672,894 off the previous sales price, including 6% sales costs. Not including transaction costs, that would also be a depreciation of 41% off the previous sales price.

Think about that: 41% off in less than two years. In a luxury neighborhood. Of course, there is always the possibility that the price is artificially low to attract multiple bids. We will know for sure when this property sells.

The latest home stats came out Friday, and there's still not really much of an improvement on the South OC numbers - if anything, the retreat continues. Here are the DataQuick stats for the 22 business days ending April 8, as reported by the OC Register:

March home stats

Here are the DataQuick numbers for March, as seen in the OC Register and on its Web site. As usual, we added in a weighted median for all of South OC, and compared this along with the sales total to March 2007 data from the Register archive.




Some notes:

• There was a modest spring bounce last month - sales rose from 368 in February to 439 in March. This represents an increase of 19%.
  
  
• Once again, there is only one median that is more than $1 million - Laguna Beach's 92651.
  
  
• Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo (92692) and Trabuco Canyon/Coto had the worst year-over-year decline in terms of number of sales. The median price decline in Laguna Hills was the largest of any ZIP (52%). All this means is the types of properties that more frequently changed hands in this area were less expensive - it doesn't say much (if anything at all) about the situation in high-end parts like Nellie Gail.
  
  
• Laguna Niguel is the only area to see a positive year-over-year change in the median, but as we mentioned it is seeing a significant slowdown in terms of sales volume. No surprise, since sales volume is down across the board.
  

South OC stats, April 11

Here are DataQuick's home sales for the 22 business days ending March 26, as reported in the Orange County Register.


If there is in fact a comeback underway, it is not showing up in the sales data yet. The only ZIP with a positive year-over-year change in sales volume is 92694, which also happens to be the one with the smallest number of sales.

The largest year-over-year decline in the median price was Laguna Hills (92653) down to $389,500, and the largest decline in sales was 92692 (Mission Viejo) with a -67.1% change.

The South OC median is still down, and the sales volume is still nearly half of what it was at the same time last year.

South OC stats, April 4

We are hearing more rumblings from people in the real estate biz that activity is picking up. It would make sense considering after more than a year of historically awful real estate numbers, things can't fall much lower and would have to improve at some point, even if slightly. At least, that's what happened in the early 90s well before a real recovery was at hand.

Then again, some said the same thing last year, so we're skeptical until the sales data tell otherwise. Since DataQuick info does lag, we won't really know for sure just how much "better" things are for at least a few more weeks. Here is the latest data released by the OC Register, for the 22 business days ending March 20.



Notice this sales data shows some improvement in a handful of ZIPs, but many others, including Laguna Niguel (92677), RSM (92688) and Mission Viejo (92692) are running significantly lower than 2007 totals. San Clemente (92672) saw the worst year-over-year decline in number of sales.

Overall, the South OC median is 13.7% below what it was last year, and there were about half as many homes sold during the time these numbers were collected this year as there were in 2007.

South OC stats, March 21

Here is the home data, as reported in the OC Register via DataQuick. It is compared to the 22 business days ending March 9, 2007. To see the last 2008 South OC numbers, which covered the month of February, click here.



Note: One improvement this week. The South OC % change in value compared to 2007 (this time it was -2.69%) is more accurate, since we used the weighted South OC median home price compared to the weighted median from the same period last year. This is no longer just a median of current medians.

February South OC sales

Here is the data from today's OC Register, which covers the month of February.



Median price and sales volume figures appear to have picked up a bit in some ZIPs (the slow start of an upward trend, or simply seasonality?) compared to the last report, but in general sales volume remains very weak virtually across the entire area - each saw negative double-digit declines in the number of sales except Dana Point, 92694, which was up 800%.

South OC home stats

Here are the latest DataQuick figures the OC Register ran in today's paper. The data are from the 22 business days ending Feb. 13:



Some notes of interest:

• Back in October, there were 4 South OC ZIP codes that had a median price of $1 million or more. Now, Laguna Beach is the only one that can claim the distinction.
  
  
• No South OC ZIP code saw a year-over-year increase in both median price and sales volume. There were 44.41% fewer South OC sales during this time compared to the same period in 2007, and 54.11% fewer sales compared to the same period in 2006. If we go back even further to 2005 the latest data represents a 56.16% decrease in the number of completed sales.
  
  
• "Top" 3 South OC ZIPS suffering the worst in terms of median price and sales volume compared to the same period in 2007 are Ladera Ranch (92694); Lake Forest (92630) and Mission Viejo (92691). Top 3 least affected are Dana Point (92629); San Clemente (92672) and Dana Point (92624).
  
  
• Most sales: Laguna Niguel (92677), 43. Least sales: Foothill Ranch (92610), 3. Biggest % decrease in year-over-year sales: Ladera Ranch (92694), -67.9%. Biggest % increase in year-over-year sales: Dana Point (92629), 19.2%.
  
  
• Largest year-over-year increase in the median: San Clemente (92672), +54.2%. Largest decrease in the median: Ladera Ranch (92694), -36.1%.
  
  
• This data makes it clear that Ladera Ranch was the worst-performing South OC ZIP code during the time period. This area not only had the largest year-over-year decline in the median sales price, it also recorded the largest year-over-year drop in the number of homes sold.

About the data: The % change in sales volume for all of South OC was computed by adding up the individual sales from this data and comparing them to the same time period last year. The "all South OC" median home price and % change near the bottom of the chart, however, are medians of medians from all South OC ZIP codes. The "all OC" data is from the Register's information.

South OC 2007 median prices

Here are the median home prices for South Orange County through December 2007, as reported by the OC Register. We also compared them to the ending numbers for 2006. The dollar-value and percent changes for each city are also included.

Latest South County housing numbers

The Register released the latest numbers from DataQuick on Friday. Here is how South OC looked for the 22 business days ending Sept. 21. For a complete breakdown of Orange County by ZIP code, click here to go to the Register article.

Scroll down to navigate the spread sheet. Here is a link to the spreadsheet itself.

What the data are telling us:

*The South OC median is up $10k to $700,000. This number is actually a median of ZIP code medians. The mean of these numbers is $787,921.12.

*The number of South OC home sales (616) dropped from the last report by about 5 percent.

*The Laguna Beach median took a huge beating. It is now $1 million, down from last time's $1.4 million figure, and down 47.3 percent from last year. Remember that with the small number of sales that took place, this number is easily skewed.

*Lake Forest and Ladera Ranch are still having huge problems. Both are seeing at least a 45 percent decline in year-over-year sales volume, and both experienced double-digit declines in the median price. RSM is also looking like it's cracking. Laguna Woods continued its year-over-year sales inventory increase, but its median price fell a bit again.

*14 of the 19 ZIP codes saw a decrease in year-over-year sales volume. The exceptions: Dana Point's 92629 (19.2 percent increase), Foothill Ranch (no change) and Laguna Woods (up 55.6 percent). Again, no ZIP saw a concurrent increase in sales volume and median price.

South OC home stats, Sept. 30

Here is the South OC home prices and sales report from today's Orange County Register. These data cover the 22 business days ending Sept. 22. Overall, county home sales decreased 35 percent, and the median sales price was down 4 percent.



Some notes on the data
The "All South OC" median home price used the median of the data (in reality, this is the median of the median, since the original data were median home price in each city). The median was also used to determine percent change in both the price and sales volume. Here are the figures if we used the mean instead:
Average of median home prices in past 4 weeks, South OC: $780,401
Average percent change in median sale price when compared year-over-year: 3%
Average percent change in sales volume, compared year-over-year: -25%

What the data are telling us:
*Ladera Ranch and Lake Forest appear to have been the worst South County markets during the time this data was collected. Both saw very large dips in both the median home price and sales volume. Mission Viejo ZIP 92691 recorded the biggest drop in home sales volume at -46.5%.

*Tracking the argument that the highest-priced markets won't be affected as much: Laguna Beach seems to say otherwise. This city, which has the highest median home price in South County, saw declines both in the median home price and sales volume. Dana Point ZIP code 92694 saw a very large spike in median home price, but considering the very small sales volume (6), it is reasonable to conclude the median was affected by the small sample size.

*10 of the 17 South OC ZIP codes recorded decreases in the median home sales price. Just 3 ZIP codes saw an increase in sales volume: Laguna Woods, the 92629 ZIP in Dana Point and Foothill Ranch. No ZIP code saw increases both in the median sales price and sales volume.