Pending luxury rollbacks

These are all properties pending for sale in the MLS that had an asking price well below the previous sales price in Zillow. Not all of these may make it all the way to the final sale, but they are properties on which the buyer and seller have agreed to a price and set of terms.

Remember, it is more than likely that the agreed-upon price is below the asking price, so the "real" loss will even more when and if the property closes. So, the "depreciation" figures are most likely understating the damage. Note: the depreciation does not include any sales costs.

These examples show that, at least judging by asking prices, the higher-end properties in South OC areas closer to the beach are currently holding values better than homes in regions that are further inland.

22 Via Andorra , Coto De Caza, 92679
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,400 sq ft
Asking price: $709,900
Peak price: $970,000 on 6/17/05
Depreciation: $260,100 (27%)
Last transaction price: $715,500 on 10/9/07
Days on market: 149
Pending date: 2/14

1693 Hillcrest Dr , Laguna Beach, 92651
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 2,000 sq ft
Asking price: $ 1,795,000
Peak price: $1,850,000 on 6/23/05
Depreciation: $55,000 (3%)
Days on market: 21
Pending date: 3/21


21 Via Santander , San Clemente, 92673
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,463 sq ft
Asking price: $699,000
Peak price: $980,000 on 6/20/05
Depreciation: $281,000 (29%)
Last transaction price: $774,253 on 6/6/07
Days on market: 275
Pending date: 3/28

2 Cavalier, Laguna Niguel, 92677
Size: 3 beds, 4 baths, 2,590 sq ft
Asking price: $1,850,000
Peak price: $1,900,000
Depreciation: $50,000 (3%)
Days on market: 16
Pending date: 3/25

8 Sunswept Mesa , Aliso Viejo, 92656
Size: 5 beds, 4 baths, 3,600 sq ft
Asking price: $1,099,000
Peak price: $1,262,500 on 2/10/06
Depreciation: $163,500 (13%)
Days on market: 392
Pending date: 3/19

Pending sales, March 17

Here we go with another of what is turning into a semi-weekly feature. Enjoy...

All these South OC properties are recent additions to the pending sales list in the MLS. Not all may make it to closing, and we won't know what the final sales prices is for a while (we also never will know the full extent of incentives like seller-paid closing costs). Still, these are indicators of the type of activity going on in the local market.

Expect some of these to be short sales and REOs. In the case of an REO, the most recent "purchase price" is sometimes actually the amount the property went back to the bank for. Some of the most recent sales or transactions might not even be showing up properly in Zillow at all.

Potential profit/loss assumes a completed sale at the full asking price, minus 6% sales costs, subtracted from the previous purchase price showing in Zillow.

16 Seacliff, Coto, 92679
Last asking price: $905,000
Size: 5 beds, 5 baths, 3,550 sq ft
Listing date: 11/19/07
Purchase price: $1,030,000
Potential profit/loss: $-179,300


35705 Beach Road, Dana Point, 92624
Last asking price: $5,659,000
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 4,200 sq ft
Listing date: 1/4/08
Purchase price: $4,250,000
Potential profit/loss: $1,069,460


31446 Calle La Purisima #43, San Juan, 92675
Last asking price: $198,900
Size: 2 beds, 2 baths, 1,057 sq ft
Listing date: 3/8/08
Purchase price*: $260,000
Potential profit/loss: $-73,034
* - peak price was $470,000

702 Camino De Los Mares , S. Clemente, 92673
Last asking price: $515,000
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,644 sq ft
Listing date: 2/12/08
Purchase price: $750,000
Potential profit/loss: $-265,900


24702 Jessica Pl , Laguna Niguel, 92677
Last asking price: $1,699,876
Size: 4 beds, 5 baths, 3,316 sq ft
Listing date: 11/3/07
Purchase price: $1,606,500
Potential profit/loss: $-86,16.56


6 Vellisimo, Aliso Viejo, 92656
Last asking price: $425,000
Size: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,350 sq ft
Listing date: 1/31/08
Purchase price: $311,500
Potential profit/loss: $88,000

Pending sales, March 4

All these South OC properties are recent additions to the pending sales list in the MLS. Not all may make it to closing, and we won't know what the final sales prices is for a while (we also never will know the full extent of incentives like seller-paid closing costs). Still, these are indicators of the type of activity going on in the local market.

Expect some of these to be short sales and REOs. In the case of an REO, the "purchase price" is sometimes actually the amount the property went back to the bank for. Some of the most recent sales or transactions might not even be showing up properly in Zillow at all.

Potential profit/loss assumes a completed sale at the full asking price, minus 6% sales costs, subtracted from the previous purchase price showing in Zillow.

19031 Willow Brook Lane, RSM, 92688
Last asking price: $690,000
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,500 sq ft
Listing date: 1/18/08
Purchase price: $885,000
Potential profit/loss: -$236,400


31022 Via Mirador, SJC,92675
Last asking price: $1,737,000
Size: 3 beds, 4.5 baths, 4,112 sq ft
Listing date: 1/8/08
Purchase price: $899,000
Potential profit/loss: $733,780


26701 Quail Crk #41, 92653
Last asking price: $225,000
Size: 1 bed, 1 bath, 676 sq ft
Listing date: 12/20/07
Purchase price: $305,000
Potential profit/loss: $-93,500


23052 Bouquet Cyn , Mission Viejo, 92692
Last asking price: $824,900
Size: 5 beds, 3 baths, 2,900 sq ft
Listing date: 2/17/08
Purchase price: $1,249,000
Potential profit/loss: $-473,594


32451 Seven Seas Dr, Dana Point, 92629
Last asking price: $3,200,000
Size: 4 beds, 5 baths, 4,391 sq ft
Listing date: 1/22/08
Purchase price: $1,620,000
Potential profit/loss: $1,388,000

Pending sales, Jan. 27

All these South OC properties are recent additions to the pending sales list in the MLS. Not all may make it to closing, and we won't know what the final sales prices is for a while (we also never will know the full extent of incentives like seller-paid closing costs). Still, these are indicators of the type of activity going on in the local market.

Expect some of these to be short sales and REOs. In the case of an REO, the "purchase price" is really the amount the property went back to the bank for.

Potential profit/loss assumes a completed sale at the full asking price, minus 6% sales costs, subtracted from the previous purchase price showing in Zillow.

29372 Via Acaso, L. Niguel, 92677
Last asking price: $654,900
Size: 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,200 sq ft
Purchase price: $773,000
Purchase date: 9/30/04
Potential profit/loss: $-157,394


17 Calle Cangrejo , SC, 92673
Asking price: $699,900
Size: 4 beds, 2.75 baths, 2,400 sq ft
Purchase price: $965,000
Purchase date: 7/1/05
Profit/loss: $-307,094


70 Rue Du Chateau #77, AV, 92656
Asking price: $464,900
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,378 sq ft
Purchase price: $498,440
Purchase date: 9/12/07
Profit/loss: $-61,434


28 Alicante , Coto de Caza, 92679
Asking price: $1,249,000
Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,735 sq ft
Purchase price: $629,000
Purchase date: 5/1/01
Profit/loss: $545,060


23415 Caminito Basilio #326, L. Hills, 92653
Asking price: $359,900
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,400 sq ft
Purchase price: $282,000
Purchase date: 6/11/03
Profit/loss: $56,306


26952 Colmenar , Mission Viejo, 92692
Asking price: $480,000
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,472 sq ft
Purchase price: $668,000
Purchase date: 9/1/06
Profit/loss: $-216,800

Pending sales in Laguna Niguel

I'm going to start regularly posting on pending sales around South County to give you an idea of what's moving in this slow real estate market. Today, we're looking at some sample properties in Laguna Niguel (92677 ZIP), which is showing 16 pending sales.

Keep in mind though that it's not uncommon in today's shaky lending environment for deals to fall apart at the last minute because of financing issues (among other reasons). So, there is no guarantee all of these will make it all the way to closing.

28571 La Alcala
Size: 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,360 sq ft
Last asking price: $579,900
Previous purchase price: $445,000
Purchase date: 8/8/03
Potential profit/loss*: $100,106


27943 Via Del Agua
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,609 sq ft
Last asking price: $519,500
Prev. purchase price: $187,000
Purchase date: 9/15/94
Profit/loss: $301,330


29546 Teracina
Size: 4 beds, 4 baths, 2,792 sq ft (REO)
Last asking price: $799,900
Prev. purchase price: $1,000,000 (looks like a refi)
Purchase date: 2/2/05
Profit/loss: $-248,094


23740 Sea Breeze Ln #19
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 944 sq ft
Last asking price: $324,900
Prev. purchase price: $460,000
Purchase date: 11/15/05
Profit/loss: $-154,594


25961 Montemar #69
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,101 sq ft
Last asking price: $304,900
Prev. purchase price: $440,000
Purchase date: 4/7/06
Profit/loss: $-153,394


2 Leicester
Size: 4 beds, 3.5 baths, 3,120 sq ft
Last asking price: $1,489,000
Prev. purchase price: $467,000
Purchase date: 8/15/96
Profit/loss: $932,660


* - Profit/loss assumes sale for the full asking price, minus 6% transaction costs. This is probably the best-case scenario in terms of profit - or the least-bad-case scenario in case of a loss.

The moral of the story is completely non-surprising: Buy and hold for a while and you'll be fine. Buy at bubble pricing and you lose.