Wateridge condo project (part 3)

I began a case study of the Wateridge neighborhood in San Diego back in March because I had a feeling we would be seeing some changes in the real estate market, and I was hoping to document those changes by using one 254-unit condo complex in Sorrento Valley as a microcosm of what might be going on in the rest of the area.

Here were the initial findings:
*There were four documented recent sales on Zillow, with an average price/sq ft of $357
*There were five condos I could find in ZipRealty for sale, average asking price/sq ft: $346 (Note: many of these were price ranges, so to be safe I used the lowest value in the range for calculation)

I came back to this complex again in May for an update. Here were those findings:
*Two additional sales resulted in $319 per sq ft
*Five properties I was following had been on the market for an average of 124 days. Usually there were price reductions, but they were typically small

Here is where we are now:
I am tracking nine active listings I found on ZipRealty. Mean asking price: $474,044 Median asking price: $475,000. Asking price/ sq ft (mean): $345
Median days on the market of active listings: 39
Note: Lowest value was taken in an asking price that was a range
FYI: The median asking price of a property in San Diego is currently $495,000, according to housingtracker.net

There were three sales since I last stopped by:
*10354 Wateridge Circle #314 sold after close to a year on the market for $445,000. This property is 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, 1,390 sq ft. It had originally been listed at $499,888. Price/sq ft paid: $320. Previous sale on 07/12/2002: $360,000.
*10362 Wateridge Circle #326 sold on the same day (6/27/07) . This sales price was $515,000. This unit is slightly bigger at 1,553 sq ft. Price/sq ft paid: $332. Previous sale on 10/3/2003: $459,840
*10288 Wateridge Circle #248 sold for $465,000 on 6/22. This unit is 1,390 sq ft. Whoops. Looks like these new owners could have lost $20,000 on paper in five days because of the sale of 10354 Wateridge Circle # 314. Price/sq ft paid: $335. Previous sale: 04/16/2002: $239,091

ZipRealty graph: Tracking median price per sq ft in Del Mar, Solana Beach, Rancho Santa Fe

Median sales price during this last tracking period: $465,000
Mean $/sq ft: $329
Median $/sq ft: $332
Mean sales price: $475,000
Change in median price/ sq ft between initial findings and this update: $-25

ZipRealty graph 2: Recent number of sales for the same area

San Diego failed trade-in

350 NUTMEG ST #404 San Diego, Calif., 92103
Size: 2 bed/2 bath, 1,589 sq ft
MLS: 076030488
Sale history: 04/08/2005: $799,000
Price Reduced: 05/16/07 -- $780,000 to $760,000
Price Reduced: 05/26/07 -- $760,000 to $720,000
Current price: $720,000 (56 DOM according to Ziprealty)
Lowest price in the area, excellent value. Brite unit! If you love travertine, granite, vaulted ceilings, stainless appliances, maple cabinets and a bonus loft for work or play, then this is your new home. Dual master style, with dual outside decks/views is hard to beat.

Hard to beat indeed...this "brite" unit is approaching its two-month anniversary on the market, and with two price reductions, it's no doubt taking a bite out of someone's wallet.

Assuming 6 percent selling costs, we're looking at a loss of $122,200 and counting.

Case studies: Wateridge (Update)

In case you've forgotten:
Wateridge is a nice 254-unit complex in Sorrento Valley (San Diego, 92121 ZIP code) built in 1998-2000.

We looked at four recent sales, of which the average price per sq ft was: $357

Now here's an update on some of the places that were featured:

10242 Wateridge Circle #194
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,553 sq ft
Sales history: 11/18/1998: $219,808
List price: $499,000-$520,000
SOLD 4/4/07: $490,000 ($316 per sq ft)


Other recent sales:
20620 Wateridge Circle #222
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,553 sq ft
Sales History: 11/30/1998: $223,990
SOLD 4/24/07: $500,000 ($322 per sq ft)

Featured properties still on the market/unsold:
10368 Wateridge Circle #330
2 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,148 sq ft
DOM: 93 MLS #: 078014555
Sales history: 05/24/2002: $324,000
Current price: $444,000-$464,000
$425,000-$445,000



0354 Wateridge Circle #314
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,390 sq ft
DOM: 278
MLS #: 066072228
Sales history:

07/12/2002:	$360,000
07/23/1999:	$222,990

Current price: $499,888; $450,000

10186 Wateridge Circle #151
2 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,148 sq ft
DOM: 132 MLS #: INACTIVE
Sales history:

09/14/2005:	$515,000
05/24/2002:	$319,909

Ending price: $464,000-$484,000
No sales info from Zillow

Newer listings:
10340 Wateridge Circle #305
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,390 sq ft
DOM: 38 MLS #: 071030988
Sales History:

02/11/2002:	$326,000
07/30/1999:	$229,265

Current price: $485,000


10158 Wateridge Circle #136
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,390 sq ft
DOM: 78 MLS #:076019058 (EXPIRED)
Price: $508,000 $490,000
New listing:
DOM: 17 MLS #: 076036865
Current price: $490,000



Average price per sq ft is down from $357...the last two sales averaged about $319. More to come on this neighborhood as things unfold.

Case study: Wateridge

Wateridge is a nice 254-unit complex in Sorrento Valley (San Diego, 92121 ZIP code) built in 1998-2000.

Here are some recent sales in the neighborhood in a variety of models:
10314 Wateridge Circle #276
2 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,148 sq ft
SOLD: 02/07/2007
Price: $455,000 ($396 per sq ft)
Previous sale: 08/03/2004: $487,000 ($-61,220) factoring in 6 percent in selling costs; does not assume any additional loans

10198 Wateridge Circle #158
2 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,148 sq ft
SOLD: 12/22/2006
Price: $427,500 ($372 per sq ft)
Previous sale: 03/26/1998: $168,740 ($+248,635)

10314 Wateridge Circle #276
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,553 sq ft
SOLD: 11/14/2006
Price: $490,000 ($315 per sq ft)
Previous sale: 11/30/2004: $562,500 ($-106,250)

10266 Wateridge Circle #224
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,390 sq ft (La Jolla Plan)
SOLD: 08/29/2006
Price: $480,000 ($345 per sq ft)
Previous sale: 04/30/2003: $385,000 ($+71,900)

Current listings:
10140 Wateridge Circle #125
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,390 sq ft
DOM: 5 MLS #: 076018292
Sales history: 05/21/2003: $390,000
Current price: $469,000-$499,000
(no photos with listing)

10368 Wateridge Circle #330
2 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,148 sq ft
DOM: 18 MLS #: 078014555
Sales history: 05/24/2002: $324,000
Current price: $444,000-$464,000




10186 Wateridge Circle #151
2 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,148 sq ft
DOM: 57 MLS #: 071003550
Sales history:

09/14/2005:	$515,000
05/24/2002:	$319,909

Current price: $464,000-$484,000

10242 Wateridge Circle #194
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,553 sq ft
DOM: 67 MLS #: 076000234
Sales history: 11/18/1998: $219,808
Current price: $499,000-$520,000




10354 Wateridge Circle #314
3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,390 sq ft
DOM: 203 (but it is a showcase listing on Realtor.com!) MLS #: 066072228
Sales history:

07/12/2002:	$360,000
07/23/1999:	$222,990

Current price: $499,888 (finally not a price range!)